Perspectives

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Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

8 Jun 2023

AOR Update: Labor Market Cracks Emerging

Despite continued strong headline numbers suggesting labor market resilience, we believe an upward trend in initial jobless claims signals weakness ahead.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook Video

9 May 2023

U.S. Recession Likelihood in 2023

Listen to Jeff Schulze discuss the likelihood of a recession in the U.S., detail factors contributing to inflation, and outline the implications of these developments for investors.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

3 May 2023

AOR Update: The Dominoes Are Falling

The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard saw three negative signal changes this month in Truck Shipments, Jobless Claims and Job Sentiment, pushing it deeper into red or recessionary territory and suggesting a significant downshift in the economy.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

6 Apr 2023

The Long View: They're Here!

Bank failures in March marked the first lagged effect from the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle. Broader risks may materialise later this year as tighter lending standards reduce credit availability, weighing on GDP growth.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

15 Mar 2023

AOR Update: Bank Crisis Recalibrates the Fed's Path

Irrespective of what the Fed ultimately decides, it seems probable that lending standards will tighten further meaning less access to credit for borrowers and a higher cost of capital, resulting in slower economic growth.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

7 Mar 2023

AOR Update: Soft Landing Head Fake or the Real McCoy?

We continue to believe a recession is more likely than a soft landing, given many of these data points are lagging or coincident in nature.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

3 Feb 2023

AOR Update: A Headwind, Not a Hurricane

While housing has been on the leading edge of the current downturn, the threat of higher interest rates will likely be muted relative to history.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

11 Jan 2023

The Long View: The Most Anticipated Recession Ever

With a deep red signal emanating from the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard and a Fed clearly willing to tolerate economic pain in order to restore price stability, we believe a recession is likely in 2023.

Anatomy of a Recession Equity Insights Market Outlook

16 Dec 2022

AOR U.S. Economic Outlook: Recession the Path of Least Resistance

The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard has been flashing a red or recessionary signal for the past four months, consistent with our view that a recession is likely to occur in the U.S. in the next 12 months.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

7 Oct 2022

The Long View: The Rorschach Economy

Similar to past recessionary drawdowns, we believe the bottoming process for equities will take time to unfold.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

8 Sep 2022

AOR Update: Recession or Red Herring?

The overall signal in the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard has worsened from yellow to red, with the Money Supply indicator also changing from yellow to red and deterioration in several indicators that did not move enough to trigger signal changes.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook Video

16 Aug 2022

AOR: US Economic and Market Views - August 2022 Update

For the economy to avert recession after a second straight negative quarter and a now yellow Recession Risk Dashboard, the Fed will likely need to make a dovish pivot.