Perspectives
Stay up-to-date with the current investment and macroeconomic issues at ClearBridge Investments. We provide analyses of the themes and trends which lie at the heart of your investment challenges.
AOR Update: Not Always a Straight Line Down
Despite better than expected Q3 GDP, we remain cautious as consumption has historically remained strong right up until or even past the start of previous recessions.
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Anatomy of a Recession Risk Dashboard
Recessions historically coincide with market downturns. Stay informed on the likelihood of a U.S. recession with the ClearBridge Investments Recession Risk Dashboard and Anatomy of a Recession program updated monthly.
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The Long View: The Crux
The toughest test for investors lies ahead as stimulus and consumer resilience fade while lagged effects of rate hikes take hold.
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Higher Deficits to Impact Equity Valuations, Market Leadership
The U.S. interest burden is set to move higher in the coming decade and could eclipse the previous peak seen in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
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AOR Update: Lower Yields, So What?
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is likely to decline in the coming year, creating catalysts for equity valuations and influencing market leadership.
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AOR Update: When To Expect A Recession?
Considering the timeline from initial rate hike to contraction, the horizon for a recession could be between mid-2023 and mid-2024.
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The Long View: Who's Right?
2Q23 Commentary: The second half could see a tug of war between market expectations for a soft landing and more cautious economic forecasts.
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AOR Update: Labor Market Cracks Emerging
Despite continued strong headline numbers suggesting labor market resilience, we believe an upward trend in initial jobless claims signals weakness ahead.
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The Prudence of Infrastructure in a Recession
Infrastructure’s focus on cash flows and underlying earnings make it a prudent investment as economic conditions deteriorate and a recession looms.
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U.S. Recession Likelihood in 2023
Listen to Jeff Schulze discuss the likelihood of a recession in the U.S., detail factors contributing to inflation, and outline the implications of these developments for investors.
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AOR Update: The Dominoes Are Falling
The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard saw three negative signal changes this month in Truck Shipments, Jobless Claims and Job Sentiment, pushing it deeper into red or recessionary territory and suggesting a significant downshift in the economy.
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The Long View: They're Here!
Bank failures in March marked the first lagged effect from the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle. Broader risks may materialise later this year as tighter lending standards reduce credit availability, weighing on GDP growth.
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