Perspectives

Stay up-to-date with the current investment and macroeconomic issues at ClearBridge Investments. We provide analyses of the themes and trends which lie at the heart of your investment challenges.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook
AOR Update: Soft Landing Coming into View

AOR Update: Soft Landing Coming into View

The overall reading of the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard, while still in red or recessionary territory, is nearing the threshold for yellow.

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Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook
Anatomy of a Recession Risk Dashboard

Anatomy of a Recession Risk Dashboard

Recessions historically coincide with market downturns. Stay informed on the likelihood of a U.S. recession with the ClearBridge Investments Recession Risk Dashboard and Anatomy of a Recession program updated monthly.

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Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook
The Long View: Here Comes the Sun?

The Long View: Here Comes the Sun?

Several rays of light are showing through the macro clouds, including an increasing likelihood of a soft landing with the Fed being in a more flexible position as inflation moderates and three positive indicator changes for the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard in the last quarter.

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Anatomy of a Recession Equity Insights Market Outlook
U.S. Economic Outlook: Beware Lagged Effects

U.S. Economic Outlook: Beware Lagged Effects

The economy is at the crux of this cycle, the most difficult period of headwinds. We expect the lagged effects of Fed tightening to slow economic growth during the first half of 2024 and we continue to maintain our base case of a recession as we move through this period.

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Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook
AOR Update: The Fed is Done, What's Next?

AOR Update: The Fed is Done, What's Next?

With the U.S. market and Federal Open Market Committee suggesting the rate hike cycle is complete, the first rate cut could come by May, a pause consistent with the Fed’s “higher for longer” messaging.

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Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook
AOR Update: Not Always a Straight Line Down

AOR Update: Not Always a Straight Line Down

Despite better than expected Q3 GDP, we remain cautious as consumption has historically remained strong right up until or even past the start of previous recessions.

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Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook
The Long View: The Crux

The Long View: The Crux

The toughest test for investors lies ahead as stimulus and consumer resilience fade while lagged effects of rate hikes take hold.

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Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook
Higher Deficits to Impact Equity Valuations, Market Leadership

Higher Deficits to Impact Equity Valuations, Market Leadership

The U.S. interest burden is set to move higher in the coming decade and could eclipse the previous peak seen in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

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Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook
AOR Update: Lower Yields, So What?

AOR Update: Lower Yields, So What?

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is likely to decline in the coming year, creating catalysts for equity valuations and influencing market leadership.

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Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook
AOR Update: When To Expect A Recession?

AOR Update: When To Expect A Recession?

Considering the timeline from initial rate hike to contraction, the horizon for a recession could be between mid-2023 and mid-2024.

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Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook
The Long View: Who's Right?

The Long View: Who's Right?

2Q23 Commentary: The second half could see a tug of war between market expectations for a soft landing and more cautious economic forecasts.

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Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook
AOR Update: Labor Market Cracks Emerging

AOR Update: Labor Market Cracks Emerging

Despite continued strong headline numbers suggesting labor market resilience, we believe an upward trend in initial jobless claims signals weakness ahead.

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