Perspectives

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Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

6 Oct 2023

The Long View: The Crux

The toughest test for investors lies ahead as stimulus and consumer resilience fade while lagged effects of rate hikes take hold.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

29 Sep 2023

Higher Deficits to Impact Equity Valuations, Market Leadership

The U.S. interest burden is set to move higher in the coming decade and could eclipse the previous peak seen in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

8 Sep 2023

AOR Update: Lower Yields, So What?

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is likely to decline in the coming year, creating catalysts for equity valuations and influencing market leadership.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

10 Aug 2023

AOR Update: When To Expect A Recession?

Considering the timeline from initial rate hike to contraction, the horizon for a recession could be between mid-2023 and mid-2024.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

10 Jul 2023

The Long View: Who's Right?

2Q23 Commentary: The second half could see a tug of war between market expectations for a soft landing and more cautious economic forecasts.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

8 Jun 2023

AOR Update: Labor Market Cracks Emerging

Despite continued strong headline numbers suggesting labor market resilience, we believe an upward trend in initial jobless claims signals weakness ahead.

Infrastructure Insights Market Outlook

1 Jun 2023

The Prudence of Infrastructure in a Recession

Infrastructure’s focus on cash flows and underlying earnings make it a prudent investment as economic conditions deteriorate and a recession looms.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook Video

9 May 2023

U.S. Recession Likelihood in 2023

Listen to Jeff Schulze discuss the likelihood of a recession in the U.S., detail factors contributing to inflation, and outline the implications of these developments for investors.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

3 May 2023

AOR Update: The Dominoes Are Falling

The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard saw three negative signal changes this month in Truck Shipments, Jobless Claims and Job Sentiment, pushing it deeper into red or recessionary territory and suggesting a significant downshift in the economy.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

6 Apr 2023

The Long View: They're Here!

Bank failures in March marked the first lagged effect from the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle. Broader risks may materialise later this year as tighter lending standards reduce credit availability, weighing on GDP growth.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

15 Mar 2023

AOR Update: Bank Crisis Recalibrates the Fed's Path

Irrespective of what the Fed ultimately decides, it seems probable that lending standards will tighten further meaning less access to credit for borrowers and a higher cost of capital, resulting in slower economic growth.

Anatomy of a Recession Market Outlook

7 Mar 2023

AOR Update: Soft Landing Head Fake or the Real McCoy?

We continue to believe a recession is more likely than a soft landing, given many of these data points are lagging or coincident in nature.