Perspectives
Stay up-to-date with the current investment and macroeconomic issues at ClearBridge Investments. We provide analyses of the themes and trends which lie at the heart of your investment challenges.
The Long View: The Peak in Peaks
Headline risks around peak everything overlook rolling stock corrections in large swaths of the market and bearish investor sentiment, factors likely to soften the current drawdown.
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Anatomy of a Recession: The More Things Change...
The overall economic backdrop remains healthy as illustrated by a continued green signal for the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard, despite softer Retail Sales and consumer confidence.
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Anatomy of a Recession: Mid-Cycle Transition No Reason to Sell
Despite a weaker than expected second quarter GDP print, we continue to believe the economy is undergoing a somewhat typical handoff from the early- to mid-cycle.
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The Long View: Waiting for a Pullback?
Today’s ebullient macro and market environment is likely to give way to a period of slower, yet still robust, economic and earnings growth powerful enough to elongate the current bull market.
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Recession Indicators: Strong... to Quite Strong
With three indicators improving in May, all 12 underlying signals on the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard are flashing green, consistent with a robust economic backdrop.
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Recession Indicators: Labour Measures Show Improvement
The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard improved in April and maintains an overall green signal with three positive underlying changes related to the labour market: Job Sentiment and Wage Growth improved to yellow while Jobless Claims advanced to green.
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The Long View: Inflationary Riptide or Reflationary Current?
The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard continues to flash an overall green expansionary signal, with one positive signal change in March as Profit Margins improved to green. We expect further improvement in the weaker areas of the dashboard as we move through the second quarter.
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Recession Indicators: Amid Recovery, Inflation Scare Looms
With reopening expected to spark a pickup in activity, fiscal and monetary policy still quite accommodative and the economy facing easier near-term price comparisons, investors are increasingly concerned about the risk of a sharp rise in inflation.
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Recession Indicators: Jobless Claims a Key Labor Barometer
The weak December jobs report tells a somewhat more optimistic story than the headline figures suggest as the vast majority of job losses were concentrated in the leisure and hospitality industries, which are more exposed to COVID-19 risk.
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The Long View: Follow the Herd?
In the latest AOR blog, “The Long View: Follow the Herd?” Jeff Schulze discusses how consumer spending and inventory restocking should spark an economic pickup and further upside for equities.
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