Perspectives

While the government shutdown has halted most economic data releases, our analysis of private data sources suggests a continuation of recent trends and a stable green signal for the Recession Risk Dashboard.

Whether a stock market bubble is forming has become a key debate for investors. We believe a boom may be ahead, driven by a favourable policy mix and a healthy consumer supporting earnings growth.

What to Make of Recent U.S. Dollar Weakness

Whether a recent fall for the U.S. dollar portends a regime shift toward systematic weakness has key ramifications for global equity leadership.

The U.S. labor market is in heightened focus as a sharp drop in immigration has contributed to slower but also lower churn employment growth, increasing the likelihood of modest interest rate cuts.

With clarity on tariffs emerging, a major source of macro and market uncertainty is waning. Combined with a tax and fiscal boost from new legislation, corporate animal spirits are poised to pick up.

Positive forces from One Big Beautiful Bill Act passage and future interest rate cuts should soon outweigh negative forces of tariff actions.

Periods of substantial uncertainty offer an opportunity for individuals and professionals alike to gain an investment edge by lengthening their time horizon.

Trade truces with China and the U.K. are just what the economy and equity markets needed to neutralise the effects of elevated policy uncertainty.

The risk-reward tradeoff facing the economy and financial markets skews unfavourably, although a positive trade shift or pivot to deregulation or tax cuts could reverse this.

Surging policy uncertainty has dented sentiment, raised inflation risk and stalled the market rally. Should uncertainty ebb in coming months, risk assets should rebound.